MROC and mobile revenues still unimpressive

I have long advocated that the real test for any new market research method is how well it resonates with clients. Or, in somewhat more crass terms, how much clients are spending on it.

Inside Research maintains a number of indices that provide estimates of US revenues by method and the August issue reports on two of the hottest new methods: MROCs and mobile.

IR estimates 2011 revenues for MROCs at $152 million. If we assume total revenues for US MR to be around $8 billion (some argue it's much higher) then MROCs are accounting for just about 2% of the total. The companies making up the index are pretty much a who's who of providers in the MR space. Granted, there is some DIY and other uncounted revenue from other providers but that's probably true of the $8 billion base as well. You also could argue that as a percent of total qualitative it's much more impressive and I would agree with you. Where I would disagree is when you try to argue that it's a significant threat to online quant. Not any time soon.

 

Mobile revenues are lower still. While mobile revenues are expected to almost double in 2011 over 2010 they are still only projected to be just over $16 million. The caveat here is that these numbers are derived from reports for the overall online index and a good deal of what's happening in mobile is happening in small, focused agencies whose revenues will not be included in the $16M. So go ahead and double it.Still, the best you can say at this stage is dramatic growth from a very small base.

Comments

[Andrew Vincent, waves]

Cant agree with these MROC adoption comments. %Growth rates always slow as the numbers get bigger and Will they really replace trackers???

[Theo Downes-Le Guin]

I don't think the growth rates will be linear and stable. After all, if 2 houseflies mated in April and none of their progenitors died, the earth would be 47 feet deep in house flies by August. Not that I'm equating new modalities of research to house flies.

The more interesting question to me is whether either MROC or mobile will create any market expansion for MR at all. At the moment it seems as if they will be replacement methods.

[Leonard Murphy]

Good points Reg and I don't disagree with you (although I would quibble about the source of the numbers as being incomplete). Today mobile and MROCs are still small contributors to the overall revenue calculations of the industry.

The real story is about the speed of adoption and anticipated growth. These methods are where online quant was in 2003 or so and by 2008 it had grown to be the largest methodology by usage and revenue globally. GRIT data is showing mobile and MROC adoption doubling almost every 6 months; at that pace I can only assume that within 2 or 3 years they will reach parity or possibly eclipse online quant for new projects, and 3-5 years for current trackers to be migrated to new techniques which is when we'll see the revenue generation really come into play.